Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus – Infected Pneumonia – early research findings

As we navigate current restrictions in response to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), some of the early research studies emerging from China help to give perspective to the nature and gravity of the challenge we face currently here in Australia.

One of the first studies, published this week in the top medical journal, the New England Journal of Medicine, gives unique insights in the origin of the disease, transmission rates and risk factors and helps give perspective into why experts are discussing “the curve” and what that means in relation to the impact of current public restrictions in place to slow down the transmission of what is fast becoming the world biggest public health challenge of the past 100 years.

Findings of note were summarised as follows” It is notable that few of the early cases occurred in children, and almost half the 425 cases were in adults 60 years of age or older, although our case definition specified severe enough illness to require medical attention, which may vary according to the presence of coexisting conditions. Furthermore, children might be less likely to become infected or, if infected, may show milder symptoms, and either of these situations would account for underrepresentation in the confirmed case count.”

Reference: Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, Ren R, Leung KSM, Lau EHY, Wong JY et al: Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine 2020, 382(13):1199-1207.

Read the full scientific paper here https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316